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Mary Sattler Peltola

Democratic house candidate from Alaska, 1W-1L (2022–2024)

Democratic
US House
Electoral Grade
Requires 3+ graded races
2
Races
1-1
W-L (50%)
Avg Margin
2022–2024
Career Span
50%
Win Rate
2 yrs
Career Span

Evidence & provenance

Source owners

Certified contest returns, candidate career records, and Akashic Edge deterministic grading inputs.

Freshness

Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest candidate, contest, and forecast tables loaded in Akashic Edge.

Boundary scope

Candidate-level profile spanning every contest recorded for this person in Akashic Edge.

Claim type

Deterministic summaries, calculated grades, and certified election history. No freeform AI prose.

Source chain

MethodologyCertified contest returnsCandidate grade inputs
Open methodology
2026
Lean D
AK SenateDeclared

Peltola lost her 2024 House race by just 1 point in a state Trump carried by 13 — a massive overperformance that makes her a formidable Senate recruit. Sullivan won re-election by 13 in 2020, but he's never faced a candidate with Peltola's crossover appeal and name recognition among Alaska Natives and rural voters. She'll face a similarly strong opponent in a much more favorable national environment than 2024, though Alaska's idiosyncratic politics mean national trends don't always translate here. Ranked-choice voting gives Peltola a structural advantage by consolidating moderate votes. Lean D.

vs.Dan Sullivan

Current Polling

Live race polling for Mary Sattler Peltola’s currently tracked contest. These snapshots update with the broader polling layer, so candidate pages inherit the current environment automatically.

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AK Senate

Challenger context with current polling, confidence, recent trend, and raw poll table.

2026 Alaska Senate General Election

Polling tracker for the 2026 Alaska senate general election.

1 pollsSparse

Field Average

Mary Peltola
Average 52.4% · Latest 52.4%
1 poll
Dan Sullivan
Average 47.6% · Latest 47.6%
1 poll
Quality

Field Average

Average support across the current primary field.

Career Timeline

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Candidate Votes
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Vote %
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Total Votes
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Margin
Top opponent: Eric HafnerDEM

Geographic Performance

2 races with county data

County-level results, strongest and weakest counties, and performance by county type.

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County Results Table

Sortable, searchable table of every county result for each race.

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Demographic Coalition Analysis

2 races available

Scatter plots correlating county performance with demographics: race, education, income, foreign-born.

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Historian Query

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Interactive AI-powered chat about Mary Sattler Peltola's career, opponents, and performance.

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